Is Erik ten Hag Safe from the Sack?

Okay – so we got it wrong. To be fair, so did most punters. Even the bookies only backed Manchester United at 9:1 to win the FA Cup from their noisy neighbours. So impressive was their performance last Sunday that many pundits and fans alike were left asking, “Where was that performance all season?”.

Yes, we know United have had injuries, but they were without key players on Sunday and still put in a masterclass performance against the newly crowned Premier League champions. Was the FA Cup triumph enough to save ten Hag, though? Do fans want him gone? Gamesbelt analyses everything, and hopefully, we’ll be able to help you predict his future (if you fancy having a bet on it) a touch better than when we were blindsided last week. Here’s what we think:

Erik ten Hag Is Not Lying

First, let’s analyse everything Erik ten Hag has been saying about his squad and the season overall. He’s long complained, even since pre-season, about United being hamstrung with so many injuries. When a player came back, he was soon crocked. Is he lying? No way. He’s absolutely bang on the money there. United went through sixteen defensive partnerships throughout the season – a record. They also conceded the most goals. Injuries are a valid excuse for a dismal season – but that’s not the only thing of note.

The performances and attitudes of some players have also worked against ten Hag and undermined club morale. Sancho may feel hard done by because he was frozen out. Yes, he’s performing at Dortmund right now, but he’s still a United player. His performances (and those of Anthony) weren’t exactly lighting things up prior to their departure. They must take some blame for the poor season, even if Sancho wasn’t there. His attitude stank.

However, let’s not pretend that ten Hag gets away from this season free from charges. Many of the underperforming players (and injured ones) are men he drafted in. How are you supposed to build something long-term by loaning short-term players? Reguilón was shipped off back to Spurs by Christmas. Amrabat only came good in the final weeks of the season. Instead of buying a new centre-back, United brought back Johnny Evans in the twilight of his career. These were ten Hag decisions.

Furthermore, ten Hag has made disastrous choices surrounding his keeper. Onana has been wobbly, but the manager also signed Butland, Dúbravka, Bayindir, and Heaton. Clearly, he was confident enough in Onana, and rightly so. Then there was Mason Mount (who couldn’t hold a spot at Chelsea), Wout Weghort (admittedly last season, but another loan deal), Eriksen and Casemiro are past their prime, and I’m yet to see what Malacia brings to the table. If he can’t displace the permanently injured Luke Shaw, what use is he?

In fact, of all ten Hag’s signings, only Martínez and Højlund have proven worth the cash. Clearly, ten Hag’s decision making isn’t up to scratch, or he’s being undermined from above.

The Pre-Season Expectations 

The manager can lay the blame at the feet of some, but I doubt the board told him at the start of this season that the only requirement was to win the FA Cup. He won’t have been told that eighth is fine as long as you land a cup. Not a chance. He will almost certainly have been told to finish in the top four and progress in Europe, if not challenge for the league. The FA Cup glosses over the cracks, and he’s correct in saying that two titles and three finals in two years are a good return – they just aren’t the trophies that the fans and club seek. Cup finals are as much about luck as anything else. Staying in the title fight requires consistency, something United lacks.

It is widely reported that Ineos and Sir Jim Ratcliffe want to swing the axe, but some fans still back him. Yes, he’s failed miserably this year, but shouldn’t we allow ten Hag the right to remain one more season to continue his building project and see what changes he makes? That said, do you really trust him to bring in the correct players (again, so far, so bad) and splash the cash? Isn’t it wiser to give the cash pot to another manager and upset the balance, or stick with him? There may be an obvious answer, as I’ll explain below.

Manchester United’s Conundrum

If Ineos wants to swing the axe, who will they put in ten Hag’s place? Pochettino has been sacked from Chelsea and has a terrible record for winning trophies in England. Thomas Tuchel was just sacked from Bayern, and it is rather telling that nobody (not even Liverpool, knowing Klopp was leaving) opted to go for him. Kieran McKenna is too experienced and will sign a new deal at Ipswich. Maresca has joined Chelsea, and rumour has it that he wasn’t even considered.

Thomas Frank? Has he done enough to be a Manchester United manager? Graham Potter? He had a good spell at Brighton, and yes, Chelsea’s owner forced players onto him, but he’s also unproven. Rumour has it that United want England manager Gareth Southgate. They’d have to wait until after the Euros, which isn’t ideal for planning a transfer window. Moreover, he’s not a club manager – we have no idea how he’d fare.

This is a very tricky situation in which Ineos, Sir Jim Ratcliffe and Manchester United’s hierarchy find themselves. Stick or twist? If you drop ten Hag, who will replace him? Are there any real contenders? If you keep him, do you know that you can trust him with the purse strings, and does he retain the dressing room to go about the business of managing? It is for this reason that we’re going to go out on a limb here at Gamesbelt and say that until somebody clear-cut comes on the market. We still envision ten Hag at Old Trafford next year, so hold onto your money and stay away from those bets – at least for now.