President Trump’s contentious Truth Social is set to become the first social media platform to offer prediction market betting. In a move fraught with accusations of conflicts of interest, Truth Social announced the news on October 28. According to early reports, Truth Social will join forces with Crypto.com to allow users to trade (effectively bet) on political elections, sports, commodity prices (notably oil and gold), even inflation and interest rate fluctuations.
It doesn’t take a genius to identify why this news comes as both a shock and a danger. Given that Truth Social’s figurehead is the President of the United States, it would naturally be in a position to influence many of these outcomes, effectively legalising “insider trading”.
The Rise of Prediction Markets
Since 2024, prediction markets have risen in popularity in the United States. Once illegal, the likes of Polymarket and other platforms allow you to place substantial bets on the outcome of various “political” issues. These include the likelihood of a ceasefire in Ukraine, with well over a billion dollars already invested.
Naturally, there are huge questions that hang in the air, especially when it comes to ethical and legal issues. Known as Truth Predict, the new option will be a direct rival to Polymarket, spanning not just political bets, but also sporting and celebrity bets. As with rivals like Polymarket and Kalshi, Truth Social is hoping to capitalise on the popularity of prediction market betting and raise revenue through fees attached to each contract sold.
Why and What Now?
Truth Social is set to begin beta testing this concept immediately, before launching the service globally. They may encounter difficulty in Europe, where, in countries such as Germany and France, prediction markets are often deemed illegal or tightly regulated.
Even in the US in 2022, the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) terminated the existing prediction market. However, with the New York Stock Exchange investing $2 billion in Polymarket earlier this month, and now Truth Social getting in on the action, the entire gambling scene stateside is about to be turned on its head.
There remain, of course, issues of legality, regulation, and interference, not to mention suspicions of insider trading and influence. So far, President Trump has proved to be made of Teflon to most things, but he is also largely changeable on a whim. Whether Truth Predict will see the light of day, therefore, remains to be seen, so watch this space.
